ADO Den Haag scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities ADO Den Haag 37.5% · Draw 28.5% · Fortuna Sittard 34.0% Why ADO Den Haag is favoured Fortuna Sittard's Elo (1503) is +50 over ADO Den Haag (1453); low confidence. Recent: ADO Den Haag 0W-1D-3L · Fortuna Sittard 2W-1D-1L (last 4). Goal differential per game: ADO Den Haag -1.8, Fortuna Sittard +0.3. Form depth ADO Den Haag: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.8 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/3 on the road). Fortuna Sittard: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (ADO Den Haag 1.4, Fortuna Sittard 2.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — ADO Den Haag 0W, 2D, Fortuna Sittard 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 0-3, 2-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.