Feyenoord Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Feyenoord Rotterdam 53.7% · Draw 25.0% · ADO Den Haag 21.3% Why Feyenoord Rotterdam is favoured Feyenoord Rotterdam's Elo (1541) is +88 over ADO Den Haag (1453); low confidence. Recent: Feyenoord Rotterdam 2W-1D-0L · ADO Den Haag 0W-0D-3L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Feyenoord Rotterdam +1.3, ADO Den Haag -2.3. Form depth Feyenoord Rotterdam: avg 2.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 2/2 on the road). ADO Den Haag: avg 0.7 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). ADO Den Haag on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.8 total goals (Feyenoord Rotterdam 2.8, ADO Den Haag 1.0) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Feyenoord Rotterdam 0W, 2D, ADO Den Haag 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 3-2, 4-2. Calibration Raw model: 62.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 53.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context ADO Den Haag has 1 more day of rest (Feyenoord Rotterdam 20d, ADO Den Haag 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.