PSV scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PSV 46.8% · Draw 27.5% · FC Groningen 25.7% Why PSV is favoured PSV's Elo (1567) is +48 over FC Groningen (1519); low confidence. Recent: PSV 1W-1D-0L · FC Groningen 2W-0D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: PSV +0.5, FC Groningen +2.0. Form depth PSV: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). FC Groningen: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). FC Groningen on a 2-match winning streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 52.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context PSV has 1 more day of rest (PSV 14d, FC Groningen 13d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.