Go Ahead Eagles scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Go Ahead Eagles 49.2% · Draw 27.8% · ADO Den Haag 23.0% Why Go Ahead Eagles is favoured Go Ahead Eagles's Elo (1504) is +38 over ADO Den Haag (1466); low confidence. Recent: Go Ahead Eagles 1W-1D-0L · ADO Den Haag 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Go Ahead Eagles +1.5, ADO Den Haag -2.5. Form depth Go Ahead Eagles: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). ADO Den Haag: avg 0.5 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). ADO Den Haag on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Go Ahead Eagles 0W, 1D, ADO Den Haag 0W (draws are common). Calibration Raw model: 57.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.