SC Heerenveen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Heerenveen 49.4% · Draw 27.6% · PEC Zwolle 22.9% Why SC Heerenveen is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1523) is +41 over PEC Zwolle (1482); low confidence. Recent: SC Heerenveen 1W-1D-0L · PEC Zwolle 0W-0D-2L (last 2). Goal differential per game: SC Heerenveen +0.5, PEC Zwolle -2.0. Form depth SC Heerenveen: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 0.5 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). PEC Zwolle on a 2-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SC Heerenveen 0W, 3D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-2, 2-1, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 57.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 49.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.