Fortuna Sittard scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fortuna Sittard 40.3% · Draw 29.2% · AZ 30.5% Why Fortuna Sittard is favoured AZ's Elo (1534) is +27 over Fortuna Sittard (1507); low confidence. Recent: Fortuna Sittard 1W-1D-0L · AZ 2W-0D-0L (last 2). Goal differential per game: Fortuna Sittard +1.0, AZ +2.5. Form depth Fortuna Sittard: avg 2.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). AZ: avg 3.0 goals scored, 0.5 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 1/1 on the road). AZ on a 2-match winning streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 42.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.