FC Twente '65 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Twente '65 42.6% · Draw 29.9% · PEC Zwolle 27.5% Why FC Twente '65 is favoured Elo essentially level (1490 vs 1497) — winner depends on context. Recent: FC Twente '65 0W-0D-1L · PEC Zwolle 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: FC Twente '65 -1.0, PEC Zwolle -2.0. Form depth FC Twente '65: avg 0.0 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). PEC Zwolle: avg 0.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — FC Twente '65 0W, 3D, PEC Zwolle 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-0, 1-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.