SBV Excelsior scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SBV Excelsior 44.3% · Draw 28.8% · PSV 26.9% Why SBV Excelsior is favoured PSV's Elo (1558) is +26 over SBV Excelsior (1532); low confidence. Recent: SBV Excelsior 1W-0D-0L · PSV 0W-1D-0L (last 1). Goal differential per game: SBV Excelsior +4.0, PSV +0.0. Form depth SBV Excelsior: avg 4.0 goals scored, 0.0 conceded per game (1/1 on the road). PSV: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 49.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context SBV Excelsior has 1 more day of rest (SBV Excelsior 7d, PSV 6d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.