Willem II Tilburg scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Willem II Tilburg 42.5% · Draw 29.7% · NEC 27.8% Why Willem II Tilburg is favoured NEC's Elo (1490) is +11 over Willem II Tilburg (1479); low confidence. Recent: Willem II Tilburg 0W-0D-1L · NEC 0W-0D-1L (last 1). Goal differential per game: Willem II Tilburg -3.0, NEC -1.0. Form depth Willem II Tilburg: avg 1.0 goals scored, 4.0 conceded per game (0/1 on the road). NEC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home). But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Willem II Tilburg 0W, 4D, NEC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 4-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 46.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.