Sparta Rotterdam scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sparta Rotterdam 42.0% · Draw 30.6% · Feyenoord Rotterdam 27.3% Why Sparta Rotterdam is favoured Feyenoord Rotterdam's Elo (1516) is +16 over Sparta Rotterdam (1500); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Sparta Rotterdam 0W, 2D, Feyenoord Rotterdam 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-4, 0-4, 3-0. Calibration Raw model: 46.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.