PSV scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities PSV 50.4% · Draw 26.2% · Fortuna Sittard 23.5% Why PSV is favoured PSV's Elo (1560) is +70 over Fortuna Sittard (1490); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — PSV 0W, 2D, Fortuna Sittard 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 5-2, 4-1. Calibration Raw model: 57.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 50.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.