| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0MODE | 24.7% | 4.05 | ||
| 0–0 | 22.2% | 4.50 | ||
| 2–0 | 13.7% | 7.29 | ||
| 1–1 | 9.7% | 10.29 | ||
| 0–1 | 8.7% | 11.44 | ||
| 2–1 | 5.4% | 18.52 | ||
| 3–0 | 5.1% | 19.68 | ||
| 3–1 | 2.0% | 49.98 |
SC Corinthians Paulista scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS Home win + BTTS yes | 8.7% | 11.8% | -26% | 11.56 |
Home win + Over 2.5 Home win + Over 2.5 | 15.5% | 10.4% | +50% | 6.44 |
Away win + BTTS Away win + BTTS yes | 2.4% | 2.9% | -18% | 42.54 |
Away win + Over 2.5 Away win + Over 2.5 | 2.6% | 2.5% | +3% | 38.45 |
Draw + Under 2.5 Draw + Under 2.5 | 31.9% | 26.7% | +20% | 3.13 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
SC Corinthians Paulista 53.4% · Draw 26.0% · CA Peñarol 20.6%