Barcelona SC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Barcelona SC 54.9% · Draw 26.0% · CA Boca Juniors 19.1% Why Barcelona SC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Barcelona SC 2W-1D-4L · CA Boca Juniors 2W-0D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Barcelona SC -0.4, CA Boca Juniors +1.0. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Barcelona SC 0W, 1D, CA Boca Juniors 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 0-0, 1-0.