| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–2MODE | 10.9% | 9.21 | ||
| 0–1 | 10.2% | 9.76 | ||
| 1–2 | 9.9% | 10.05 | ||
| 1–1 | 9.4% | 10.65 | ||
| 0–3 | 7.7% | 13.04 | ||
| 1–3 | 7.0% | 14.23 | ||
| 0–0 | 4.8% | 20.68 | ||
| 2–2 | 4.6% | 21.94 |
Barcelona SC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 8.1% | 8.1% | -0% | 12.41 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 8.9% | 9.0% | -1% | 11.30 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 29.6% | 34.2% | -13% | 3.38 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 43.7% | 37.9% | +15% | 2.29 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Barcelona SC 54.9% · Draw 26.0% · CA Boca Juniors 19.1% Why Barcelona SC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Barcelona SC 2W-1D-4L · CA Boca Juniors 2W-0D-1L (last 7). Goal differential per game: Barcelona SC -0.4, CA Boca Juniors +1.0. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Barcelona SC 0W, 1D, CA Boca Juniors 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-0, 0-0, 1-0.