CS Cristal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CS Cristal 53.5% · Draw 26.0% · SE Palmeiras 20.5% Why CS Cristal is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CS Cristal 4W-2D-1L · SE Palmeiras 6W-4D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CS Cristal +0.6, SE Palmeiras +0.6.