| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 22.3% | 4.48 | ||
| 0–0 | 18.0% | 5.57 | ||
| 0–2 | 13.9% | 7.22 | ||
| 1–1 | 10.6% | 9.43 | ||
| 1–0 | 8.5% | 11.71 | ||
| 1–2 | 6.6% | 15.19 | ||
| 0–3 | 5.7% | 17.44 | ||
| 1–3 | 2.7% | 36.71 |
Deportivo La Guaira FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 3.3% | 3.8% | -15% | 30.63 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 3.6% | 3.5% | +3% | 27.56 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 11.4% | 14.9% | -24% | 8.81 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 19.4% | 13.7% | +41% | 5.15 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Deportivo La Guaira is currently second in Group C of Copa Libertadores. They are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, but have drawn their two Copa Libertadores outings so far.
Lineup: No confirmed lineup details or projected starting XI have been released.
Club Bolívar comes into this match on a strong run, having won their last three consecutive matches and scoring in six consecutive matches. They have only one defeat in their last six games across all competitions.
Lineup: No specific expected starting XI information is available. No players are currently reported injured or suspended for Copa Libertadores.
“Bolívar seeks to extend winning streak against a resilient Deportivo La Guaira in Copa Libertadores clash.”
Model probabilities Deportivo La Guaira FC 45.9% · Draw 26.0% · Club Bolívar 28.1% Why Deportivo La Guaira FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Deportivo La Guaira FC 0W-2D-1L · Club Bolívar 1W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Deportivo La Guaira FC -1.0, Club Bolívar +0.3. Form depth Deportivo La Guaira FC: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Club Bolívar: avg 1.0 goals scored, 0.7 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/1 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (Deportivo La Guaira FC 0.7, Club Bolívar 1.3) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Deportivo La Guaira FC 0W, 1D, Club Bolívar 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 1-1. News context Bolívar seeks to extend winning streak against a resilient Deportivo La Guaira in Copa Libertadores clash. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Deportivo La Guaira is currently second in Group C of Copa Libertadores. They are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, but have drawn their two Copa Libertadores outings so far. Club Bolívar: Club Bolívar comes into this match on a strong run, having won their last three consecutive matches and scoring in six consecutive matches. They have only one defeat in their last six games across all competitions. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.