CA Rosario Central
vs Club Libertad Asuncion_

Most likely scorelines

• 2–0MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  20.7%

  Fair odds

  4.84

• 3–0+Save pick

  Prob

  18.3%

  Fair odds

  5.46

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  15.5%

  Fair odds

  6.44

• 4–0+Save pick

  Prob

  12.2%

  Fair odds

  8.21

• 5–0+Save pick

  Prob

  6.5%

  Fair odds

  15.44

• 0–0+Save pick

  Prob

  5.8%

  Fair odds

  17.12

• 2–1+Save pick

  Prob

  4.1%

  Fair odds

  24.20

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  3.7%

  Fair odds

  27.30

CA Rosario Central scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -14%

  Joint prob

  12.9%

  Naïve (book)

  15.0%

  Fair odds

  7.74

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +9%

  Joint prob

  52.8%

  Naïve (book)

  48.5%

  Fair odds

  1.90

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  +30%

  Joint prob

  0.4%

  Naïve (book)

  0.3%

  Fair odds

  275.69

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  -59%

  Joint prob

  0.4%

  Naïve (book)

  0.9%

  Fair odds

  269.60

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.