| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–0MODE | 20.7% | 4.84 | ||
| 3–0 | 18.3% | 5.46 | ||
| 1–0 | 15.5% | 6.44 | ||
| 4–0 | 12.2% | 8.21 | ||
| 5–0 | 6.5% | 15.44 | ||
| 0–0 | 5.8% | 17.12 | ||
| 2–1 | 4.1% | 24.20 | ||
| 3–1 | 3.7% | 27.30 |
CA Rosario Central scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 12.9% | 15.0% | -14% | 7.74 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 52.8% | 48.5% | +9% | 1.90 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 0.4% | 0.3% | +30% | 275.69 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 0.4% | 0.9% | -59% | 269.60 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Rosario Central 53.0% · Draw 26.0% · Club Libertad Asuncion 21.0% Why CA Rosario Central is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: CA Rosario Central 2W-1D-0L · Club Libertad Asuncion 0W-0D-3L (last 3). Goal differential per game: CA Rosario Central +1.3, Club Libertad Asuncion -1.3.