| Score | Likelihood | Prob | Fair odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1MODE | 15.1% | 6.62 | ||
| 0–2 | 14.0% | 7.13 | ||
| 1–1 | 9.9% | 10.10 | ||
| 1–2 | 9.2% | 10.89 | ||
| 0–3 | 8.7% | 11.52 | ||
| 0–0 | 8.1% | 12.28 | ||
| 1–3 | 5.7% | 17.59 | ||
| 1–0 | 5.3% | 18.75 |
Grêmio FBPA scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
| Combo | Joint prob | Naïve (book) | Corr. | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Home win + BTTS home + btts | 4.9% | 5.1% | -2% | 20.24 |
Home win + Over 2.5 home + total_goals_2.5 | 5.4% | 5.7% | -6% | 18.54 |
Away win + BTTS away + btts | 22.2% | 26.8% | -17% | 4.50 |
Away win + Over 2.5 away + total_goals_2.5 | 36.9% | 30.3% | +22% | 2.71 |
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Grêmio FBPA 49.0% · Draw 26.0% · CR Flamengo 25.0% Why Grêmio FBPA is favoured Elo essentially level (1500 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Grêmio FBPA 2W-5D-3L · CR Flamengo 6W-3D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Grêmio FBPA -0.1, CR Flamengo +1.1. Form depth Grêmio FBPA: avg 0.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 0/6 on the road). CR Flamengo: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). CR Flamengo on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Grêmio FBPA 0.8, CR Flamengo 1.5) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments CR Flamengo has a stronger recent record (60% vs 20%) — model favours Grêmio FBPA on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Grêmio FBPA 0W, 2D, CR Flamengo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 3-2. Context Grêmio FBPA has 10 more days of rest (Grêmio FBPA 58d, CR Flamengo 48d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.