Fluminense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Fluminense FC 40.7% · Draw 25.9% · São Paulo FC 33.4% Why Fluminense FC is favoured Elo essentially level (1485 vs 1490) — winner depends on context. Recent: Fluminense FC 2W-4D-4L · São Paulo FC 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Fluminense FC -0.4, São Paulo FC -0.1. Form depth Fluminense FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). São Paulo FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Fluminense FC on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Fluminense FC 1.3, São Paulo FC 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Fluminense FC 0W, 2D, São Paulo FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 6-0, 3-1, 2-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.