CA Mineiro scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CA Mineiro 53.6% · Draw 25.9% · Mirassol FC 20.5% Why CA Mineiro is favoured Elo essentially level (1514 vs 1509) — winner depends on context. Recent: CA Mineiro 4W-1D-5L · Mirassol FC 5W-1D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CA Mineiro -0.2, Mirassol FC +0.2. Form depth CA Mineiro: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). Mirassol FC: avg 1.1 goals scored, 0.9 conceded per game (4/7 at home, 1/3 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (CA Mineiro 1.0, Mirassol FC 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — CA Mineiro 0W, 1D, Mirassol FC 0W (draws are common). Last 2: 1-0, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.