Valencia CF scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Valencia CF 48.8% · Draw 26.0% · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 25.2% Why Valencia CF is favoured Elo essentially level (1465 vs 1466) — winner depends on context. Recent: Valencia CF 5W-1D-4L · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 4W-4D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Valencia CF +0.1, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid +0.3. Form depth Valencia CF: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (3/6 at home, 1/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Valencia CF 1.1, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1.2) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Valencia CF 0W, 6D, Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-1, 0-1.