SE Palmeiras scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SE Palmeiras 52.9% · Draw 25.1% · Cruzeiro EC 22.0% Why SE Palmeiras is favoured SE Palmeiras's Elo (1515) is +29 over Cruzeiro EC (1485); low confidence. Recent: SE Palmeiras 5W-5D-0L · Cruzeiro EC 6W-1D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SE Palmeiras +0.6, Cruzeiro EC +0.1. Form depth SE Palmeiras: avg 1.2 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 3/7 on the road). Cruzeiro EC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (SE Palmeiras 1.1, Cruzeiro EC 0.9) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — SE Palmeiras 0W, 3D, Cruzeiro EC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-1, 1-2. Context Cruzeiro EC has 1 more day of rest (SE Palmeiras 40d, Cruzeiro EC 41d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.