Sporting Clube de Braga scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Braga 50.1% · Draw 26.0% · CF Estrela da Amadora 24.0% Why Sporting Clube de Braga is favoured Elo essentially level (1501 vs 1500) — winner depends on context. Recent: Sporting Clube de Braga 4W-4D-2L · CF Estrela da Amadora 1W-3D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Braga +0.2, CF Estrela da Amadora -0.3. Form depth Sporting Clube de Braga: avg 1.4 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Sporting Clube de Braga on a 2-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Sporting Clube de Braga 1.4, CF Estrela da Amadora 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Braga 0W, 4D, CF Estrela da Amadora 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-3, 0-1, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.