CD Nacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Nacional 49.3% · Draw 25.6% · Vitória SC 25.1% Why CD Nacional is favoured CD Nacional's Elo (1485) is +13 over Vitória SC (1472); low confidence. Recent: CD Nacional 3W-1D-6L · Vitória SC 3W-2D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: CD Nacional -0.3, Vitória SC -0.3. Form depth CD Nacional: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Vitória SC: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). CD Nacional on a 2-match losing streak. Vitória SC on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (CD Nacional 1.1, Vitória SC 1.1) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CD Nacional 0W, 2D, Vitória SC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 1-2, 2-2. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.