Gil Vicente FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Gil Vicente FC 45.6% · Draw 26.0% · FC Arouca 28.4% Why Gil Vicente FC is favoured Recent: Gil Vicente FC 2W-4D-4L · FC Arouca 4W-1D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Gil Vicente FC -0.1, FC Arouca +0.0. Form depth Gil Vicente FC: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). FC Arouca: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (Gil Vicente FC 1.3, FC Arouca 1.4) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments FC Arouca has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Gil Vicente FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 6 prior meetings — Gil Vicente FC 0W, 6D, FC Arouca 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-1, 1-1.