Deportivo Alavés
vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid_

Most likely scorelines

• 2–1MODE+Save pick

  Prob

  8.4%

  Fair odds

  11.94

• 1–1+Save pick

  Prob

  7.9%

  Fair odds

  12.72

• 2–2+Save pick

  Prob

  7.2%

  Fair odds

  13.89

• 1–2+Save pick

  Prob

  6.8%

  Fair odds

  14.80

• 3–1+Save pick

  Prob

  5.9%

  Fair odds

  16.81

• 3–2+Save pick

  Prob

  5.1%

  Fair odds

  19.56

• 2–0+Save pick

  Prob

  4.9%

  Fair odds

  20.53

• 1–0+Save pick

  Prob

  4.6%

  Fair odds

  21.87

Deportivo Alavés scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.

Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.

Correlation-aware combos

• Home win + BTTS

  home + btts

  -8%

  Joint prob

  31.6%

  Naïve (book)

  34.3%

  Fair odds

  3.16

• Home win + Over 2.5

  home + total_goals_2.5

  +8%

  Joint prob

  38.0%

  Naïve (book)

  35.1%

  Fair odds

  2.63

• Away win + BTTS

  away + btts

  -5%

  Joint prob

  21.9%

  Naïve (book)

  22.9%

  Fair odds

  4.58

• Away win + Over 2.5

  away + total_goals_2.5

  +6%

  Joint prob

  24.8%

  Naïve (book)

  23.4%

  Fair odds

  4.03

Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.