Deportivo Alavés scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Deportivo Alavés 8.6% · Draw 14.4% · FC Barcelona 77.0% Why FC Barcelona is favoured FC Barcelona's Elo (1796) is +385 over Deportivo Alavés (1411); high confidence. Recent: Deportivo Alavés 2W-4D-4L · FC Barcelona 9W-0D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Deportivo Alavés -0.4, FC Barcelona +1.5. Form depth Deportivo Alavés: avg 1.8 goals scored, 2.2 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). FC Barcelona: avg 2.3 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (5/6 at home, 4/4 on the road). FC Barcelona on a 6-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (Deportivo Alavés 1.3, FC Barcelona 2.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Deportivo Alavés 0W, 2D, FC Barcelona 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-1, 1-0, 0-3.