Lille OSC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Lille OSC 68.9% · Draw 20.8% · AJ Auxerre 10.3% Why Lille OSC is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1634) is +174 over AJ Auxerre (1461); high confidence. Recent: Lille OSC 7W-3D-0L · AJ Auxerre 3W-5D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Lille OSC +1.2, AJ Auxerre +0.4. Form depth Lille OSC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 5/5 on the road). AJ Auxerre: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). AJ Auxerre on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (Lille OSC 1.4, AJ Auxerre 0.9) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Lille OSC 0W, 4D, AJ Auxerre 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 3-4, 3-1, 0-0.