Olympique de Marseille scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Olympique de Marseille 52.3% · Draw 24.9% · Stade Rennais FC 1901 22.7% Why Olympique de Marseille is favoured Olympique de Marseille's Elo (1616) is +36 over Stade Rennais FC 1901 (1581); high confidence. Recent: Olympique de Marseille 5W-1D-4L · Stade Rennais FC 1901 7W-1D-2L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Olympique de Marseille -0.1, Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.9. Form depth Olympique de Marseille: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.1 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/6 at home, 3/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (Olympique de Marseille 1.2, Stade Rennais FC 1901 1.7) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Stade Rennais FC 1901 has a stronger recent record (70% vs 50%) — model favours Olympique de Marseille on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Olympique de Marseille 0W, 1D, Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 4-2, 1-2.