FC Lorient scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Lorient 62.7% · Draw 22.8% · Le Havre AC 14.6% Why FC Lorient is favoured FC Lorient's Elo (1509) is +108 over Le Havre AC (1401); high confidence. Recent: FC Lorient 3W-4D-3L · Le Havre AC 0W-6D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: FC Lorient +0.3, Le Havre AC -0.5. Form depth FC Lorient: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Le Havre AC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (FC Lorient 1.6, Le Havre AC 1.1) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — FC Lorient 0W, 5D, Le Havre AC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 3-3, 3-0.