Stade Rennais FC 1901 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Stade Rennais FC 1901 55.8% · Draw 24.4% · Paris FC 19.8% Why Stade Rennais FC 1901 is favoured Stade Rennais FC 1901's Elo (1572) is +53 over Paris FC (1519); high confidence. Recent: Stade Rennais FC 1901 7W-1D-2L · Paris FC 5W-4D-1L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Stade Rennais FC 1901 +1.1, Paris FC +1.0. Form depth Stade Rennais FC 1901: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 4/5 on the road). Paris FC: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.8 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Stade Rennais FC 1901 1.5, Paris FC 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Stade Rennais FC 1901 0W, 2D, Paris FC 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 0-1.