AS Monaco FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AS Monaco FC 38.4% · Draw 24.0% · Lille OSC 37.6% Why AS Monaco FC is favoured Lille OSC's Elo (1626) is +66 over AS Monaco FC (1561); high confidence. Recent: AS Monaco FC 6W-3D-1L · Lille OSC 7W-3D-0L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AS Monaco FC +0.6, Lille OSC +1.2. Form depth AS Monaco FC: avg 2.0 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/4 at home, 3/6 on the road). Lille OSC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 5/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.7 total goals (AS Monaco FC 1.2, Lille OSC 1.5) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — AS Monaco FC 0W, 4D, Lille OSC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 2-1, 0-0.