Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · FC Lorient
To win
+$23.40
Total payout
$43.40
Joint prob
47.5%
Combined odds
2.17
Fair odds
2.11
Edge
+3.0%
Expected value: +$0.60 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.60 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Spreads and totals shown for reference only — model probabilities above are for the moneyline outcome, not points margin.
FC Lorient scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 47.5% · fair market: 44.5% · edge: +6.6%
FC Lorient 47.5% · Draw 26.0% · RC Strasbourg Alsace 26.5% +EV: home (6.6%)
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.