1. FC Union Berlin scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FC Union Berlin 40.6% · Draw 24.6% · FC Augsburg 34.8% Why 1. FC Union Berlin is favoured FC Augsburg's Elo (1483) is +47 over 1. FC Union Berlin (1435); high confidence. Recent: 1. FC Union Berlin 2W-2D-6L · FC Augsburg 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Union Berlin -1.0, FC Augsburg +0.1. Form depth 1. FC Union Berlin: avg 1.1 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). FC Augsburg: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). FC Augsburg on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.3 total goals (1. FC Union Berlin 1.4, FC Augsburg 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments FC Augsburg has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours 1. FC Union Berlin on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — 1. FC Union Berlin 0W, 4D, FC Augsburg 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 0-2.