1. FC Heidenheim 1846 scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 27.0% · Draw 22.1% · 1. FSV Mainz 05 51.0% Why 1. FSV Mainz 05 is favoured 1. FSV Mainz 05's Elo (1482) is +131 over 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (1351); high confidence. Recent: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 3W-3D-4L · 1. FSV Mainz 05 4W-3D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 +0.0, 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.1. Form depth 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: avg 1.9 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). 1. FSV Mainz 05: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 3/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.5 total goals (1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1.7, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0W, 1D, 1. FSV Mainz 05 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-1, 0-2, 0-2.