1. FC Köln scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities 1. FC Köln 66.0% · Draw 21.6% · 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 12.4% Why 1. FC Köln is favoured 1. FC Köln's Elo (1478) is +148 over 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (1330); high confidence. Recent: 1. FC Köln 1W-6D-3L · 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 2W-4D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: 1. FC Köln -0.2, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 -0.2. Form depth 1. FC Köln: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: avg 1.9 goals scored, 2.1 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.7 total goals (1. FC Köln 1.9, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 1.9) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — 1. FC Köln 0W, 3D, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 4-1, 1-1.