Hamburger SV scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Hamburger SV 36.7% · Draw 24.3% · SC Freiburg 39.0% Why SC Freiburg is favoured SC Freiburg's Elo (1490) is +57 over Hamburger SV (1433); high confidence. Recent: Hamburger SV 2W-2D-6L · SC Freiburg 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Hamburger SV -0.8, SC Freiburg -0.4. Form depth Hamburger SV: avg 1.1 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SC Freiburg: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game (2/6 at home, 2/4 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Hamburger SV 1.4, SC Freiburg 1.6) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — Hamburger SV 0W, 5D, SC Freiburg 0W (draws are common). Last 1: 2-1.