SC Heerenveen scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities SC Heerenveen 58.3% · Draw 24.2% · AFC Ajax 17.5% Why SC Heerenveen is favoured SC Heerenveen's Elo (1515) is +60 over AFC Ajax (1455); low confidence. Recent: SC Heerenveen 7W-1D-2L · AFC Ajax 3W-4D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: SC Heerenveen +0.8, AFC Ajax +0.5. Form depth SC Heerenveen: avg 2.2 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (5/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). AFC Ajax: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (1/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). SC Heerenveen on a 2-match winning streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.2 total goals (SC Heerenveen 1.7, AFC Ajax 1.5) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — SC Heerenveen 0W, 1D, AFC Ajax 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 0-2, 1-0. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.