Heracles Almelo scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Heracles Almelo 44.3% · Draw 25.9% · FC Groningen 29.8% Why Heracles Almelo is favoured Elo essentially level (1485 vs 1490) — winner depends on context. Recent: Heracles Almelo 0W-2D-8L · FC Groningen 4W-2D-4L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Heracles Almelo -2.2, FC Groningen +0.3. Form depth Heracles Almelo: avg 0.3 goals scored, 2.5 conceded per game (0/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). FC Groningen: avg 1.7 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game (3/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Heracles Almelo on a 5-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Heracles Almelo 0.8, FC Groningen 2.1) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments FC Groningen has a stronger recent record (40% vs 0%) — model favours Heracles Almelo on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Heracles Almelo 0W, 1D, FC Groningen 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 4-0, 4-1, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.