AZ scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities AZ 44.9% · Draw 26.0% · NAC Breda 29.1% Why AZ is favoured Recent: AZ 4W-3D-3L · NAC Breda 2W-3D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: AZ +0.5, NAC Breda -1.2. Form depth AZ: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). NAC Breda: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.9 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). AZ on a 3-draw streak. NAC Breda on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (AZ 1.8, NAC Breda 0.9) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — AZ 0W, 1D, NAC Breda 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 1-1, 1-2.