US Sassuolo Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities US Sassuolo Calcio 66.7% · Draw 21.4% · US Lecce 11.9% Why US Sassuolo Calcio is favoured US Sassuolo Calcio's Elo (1507) is +153 over US Lecce (1354); high confidence. Recent: US Sassuolo Calcio 4W-2D-4L · US Lecce 2W-2D-6L (last 10). Goal differential per game: US Sassuolo Calcio +0.1, US Lecce -0.8. Form depth US Sassuolo Calcio: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). US Lecce: avg 0.7 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/4 at home, 1/6 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.3 total goals (US Sassuolo Calcio 1.4, US Lecce 0.9) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — US Sassuolo Calcio 0W, 5D, US Lecce 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 0-3, 1-1.