Genoa CFC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Genoa CFC 27.0% · Draw 21.3% · AC Milan 51.7% Why AC Milan is favoured AC Milan's Elo (1611) is +156 over Genoa CFC (1455); high confidence. Recent: Genoa CFC 4W-2D-4L · AC Milan 4W-1D-5L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Genoa CFC -0.3, AC Milan -0.3. Form depth Genoa CFC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.1 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 2/6 on the road). AC Milan: avg 0.9 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 2/5 on the road). Genoa CFC on a 2-draw streak. AC Milan on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.0 total goals (Genoa CFC 1.0, AC Milan 1.0) — below 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Genoa CFC 0W, 4D, AC Milan 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 1-2, 0-0.