Cagliari Calcio scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Cagliari Calcio 42.8% · Draw 25.5% · Torino FC 31.7% Why Cagliari Calcio is favoured Torino FC's Elo (1461) is +16 over Cagliari Calcio (1445); high confidence. Recent: Cagliari Calcio 2W-2D-6L · Torino FC 5W-2D-3L (last 10). Goal differential per game: Cagliari Calcio -0.8, Torino FC +0.4. Form depth Cagliari Calcio: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (2/5 at home, 0/5 on the road). Torino FC: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (4/5 at home, 1/5 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.6 total goals (Cagliari Calcio 1.0, Torino FC 1.6) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Torino FC has a stronger recent record (50% vs 20%) — model favours Cagliari Calcio on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — Cagliari Calcio 0W, 2D, Torino FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-2, 2-0, 3-2.