Sporting Clube de Braga scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Braga 53.4% · Draw 23.6% · FC Famalicão 23.0% Why Sporting Clube de Braga is favoured Sporting Clube de Braga's Elo (1500) is +27 over FC Famalicão (1473); medium confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Braga 3W-2D-4L · FC Famalicão 2W-4D-3L (last 9). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Braga -0.2, FC Famalicão +0.3. Form depth Sporting Clube de Braga: avg 1.0 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (2/4 at home, 1/5 on the road). FC Famalicão: avg 1.6 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/4 at home, 2/5 on the road). Sporting Clube de Braga on a 3-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (Sporting Clube de Braga 1.1, FC Famalicão 1.4) — right around 2.5. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — Sporting Clube de Braga 0W, 4D, FC Famalicão 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 1-2, 1-1. Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.