CD Nacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Nacional 42.7% · Draw 30.1% · FC Famalicão 27.2% Why CD Nacional is favoured Elo essentially level (1493 vs 1495) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Nacional 1W-1D-4L · FC Famalicão 0W-4D-2L (last 6). Goal differential per game: CD Nacional -0.7, FC Famalicão -0.3. Form depth CD Nacional: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.8 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). FC Famalicão: avg 0.8 goals scored, 1.2 conceded per game (0/3 at home, 0/3 on the road). CD Nacional on a 4-match losing streak. FC Famalicão on a 3-draw streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~2.5 total goals (CD Nacional 1.2, FC Famalicão 1.3) — right around 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CD Nacional 0W, 2D, FC Famalicão 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-0, 0-1, 2-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context FC Famalicão has 3 more days of rest (CD Nacional 39d, FC Famalicão 42d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.