FC Arouca scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities FC Arouca 42.9% · Draw 30.0% · CD Santa Clara 27.1% Why FC Arouca is favoured Elo essentially level (1539 vs 1543) — winner depends on context. Recent: FC Arouca 3W-1D-1L · CD Santa Clara 3W-2D-0L (last 5). Goal differential per game: FC Arouca +0.8, CD Santa Clara +1.2. Form depth FC Arouca: avg 1.4 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). CD Santa Clara: avg 1.8 goals scored, 0.6 conceded per game (2/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.2 total goals (FC Arouca 1.0, CD Santa Clara 1.2) — below 2.5. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 4 prior meetings — FC Arouca 0W, 4D, CD Santa Clara 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-2, 0-0, 2-0. Calibration Raw model: 47.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context FC Arouca has 2 more days of rest (FC Arouca 35d, CD Santa Clara 33d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.