Moreirense FC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Moreirense FC 37.6% · Draw 27.6% · CS Marítimo 34.7% Why Moreirense FC is favoured CS Marítimo's Elo (1519) is +66 over Moreirense FC (1453); low confidence. Recent: Moreirense FC 1W-1D-3L · CS Marítimo 2W-1D-2L (last 5). Goal differential per game: Moreirense FC -1.6, CS Marítimo -0.4. Form depth Moreirense FC: avg 0.8 goals scored, 2.4 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 1/3 on the road). CS Marítimo: avg 1.2 goals scored, 1.6 conceded per game (1/3 at home, 1/2 on the road). Moreirense FC on a 2-match losing streak. CS Marítimo on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.0 total goals (Moreirense FC 1.2, CS Marítimo 1.8) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments CS Marítimo has a stronger recent record (40% vs 20%) — model favours Moreirense FC on Elo + home advantage despite the form gap. Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 3 prior meetings — Moreirense FC 0W, 3D, CS Marítimo 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-1, 0-0, 0-2. Calibration Raw model: 36.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 37.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context CS Marítimo has 2 more days of rest (Moreirense FC 35d, CS Marítimo 37d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.