Sporting Clube de Portugal scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Sporting Clube de Portugal 57.5% · Draw 22.3% · CD Nacional 20.2% Why Sporting Clube de Portugal is favoured Sporting Clube de Portugal's Elo (1641) is +139 over CD Nacional (1502); low confidence. Recent: Sporting Clube de Portugal 3W-1D-0L · CD Nacional 1W-1D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.8, CD Nacional +0.0. Form depth Sporting Clube de Portugal: avg 3.0 goals scored, 1.3 conceded per game (2/2 at home, 1/2 on the road). CD Nacional: avg 1.5 goals scored, 1.5 conceded per game (1/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Sporting Clube de Portugal on a 3-match winning streak. CD Nacional on a 2-match losing streak. Goals expectation Model expects ~3.6 total goals (Sporting Clube de Portugal 2.3, CD Nacional 1.4) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (25%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 66.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Sporting Clube de Portugal has 2 more days of rest (Sporting Clube de Portugal 27d, CD Nacional 25d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (25% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.