CF Estrela da Amadora scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CF Estrela da Amadora 45.7% · Draw 29.3% · FC Famalicão 25.0% Why CF Estrela da Amadora is favoured CF Estrela da Amadora's Elo (1503) is +13 over FC Famalicão (1490); low confidence. Recent: CF Estrela da Amadora 1W-2D-0L · FC Famalicão 0W-2D-2L (last 4). Goal differential per game: CF Estrela da Amadora +0.3, FC Famalicão -0.5. Form depth CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 2.3 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 1/2 on the road). FC Famalicão: avg 0.5 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (0/2 at home, 0/2 on the road). Goals expectation Model expects ~2.9 total goals (CF Estrela da Amadora 1.7, FC Famalicão 1.3) — above the 2.5-goal mid line. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 5 prior meetings — CF Estrela da Amadora 0W, 5D, FC Famalicão 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 0-0, 2-3, 0-0. Calibration Raw model: 52.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context FC Famalicão has 1 more day of rest (CF Estrela da Amadora 27d, FC Famalicão 28d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.