Casa Pia AC scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities Casa Pia AC 41.1% · Draw 29.6% · Moreirense FC 29.3% Why Casa Pia AC is favoured Moreirense FC's Elo (1467) is +18 over Casa Pia AC (1449); low confidence. Recent: Casa Pia AC 0W-0D-3L · Moreirense FC 0W-1D-1L (last 3). Goal differential per game: Casa Pia AC -3.3, Moreirense FC -2.0. Form depth Casa Pia AC: avg 0.0 goals scored, 3.3 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). Moreirense FC: avg 1.0 goals scored, 3.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). Casa Pia AC on a 3-match losing streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 1 prior meetings — Casa Pia AC 0W, 1D, Moreirense FC 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 1-1, 2-1, 3-2. Calibration Raw model: 44.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context Casa Pia AC has 2 more days of rest (Casa Pia AC 22d, Moreirense FC 20d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.