CD Nacional scores shown first. Bivariate Poisson with team xG from recent form — most-likely score ≠ most-likely winner.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson model on expected goals. Edge % shown only when the book posts both sides of a market.
Joint probability comes from the score grid (the truth). Naïve is what a book gets by multiplying legs — they undershoot correlated positive legs like "home + BTTS" and overshoot anti-correlated ones like "draw + over 2.5". Buy positive correlation; avoid negative.
Model probabilities CD Nacional 42.7% · Draw 30.2% · CF Estrela da Amadora 27.2% Why CD Nacional is favoured Elo essentially level (1502 vs 1503) — winner depends on context. Recent: CD Nacional 1W-1D-1L · CF Estrela da Amadora 0W-2D-0L (last 3). Goal differential per game: CD Nacional +0.3, CF Estrela da Amadora +0.0. Form depth CD Nacional: avg 1.3 goals scored, 1.0 conceded per game (1/1 at home, 0/2 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora: avg 2.0 goals scored, 2.0 conceded per game (0/1 at home, 0/1 on the road). CF Estrela da Amadora on a 2-draw streak. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (15%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Head-to-head 2 prior meetings — CD Nacional 0W, 2D, CF Estrela da Amadora 0W (draws are common). Last 3: 2-0, 1-1, 0-1. Calibration Raw model: 47.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Context CF Estrela da Amadora has 2 more days of rest (CD Nacional 19d, CF Estrela da Amadora 21d). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (15% sample-size confidence); this is a low-conviction match overall — bet only with strong reason from outside the model.